Guys, I am using coinsebay.com to track gold premium and silver premiums. Premiums exploded.
So, stay tuned.
May is a technically bad month from seasonality analysis. but , we had the silver rush in 2011 in may , so who knows
stay tuned
martes, 30 de abril de 2013
lunes, 29 de abril de 2013
Why gold is down in 2013?
guys this vid is a a must
Chris Martenson talking with Mike Maloney : "Why Did Silver and Gold Collapse"?
key words:
gold collapse
gold crash 2013
gold pull back
gold felt
gold take down 2013
gold luster
key words:
gold collapse
gold crash 2013
gold pull back
gold felt
gold take down 2013
gold luster
martes, 23 de abril de 2013
Phyz shortage is here. Gold and silver shortage are real
The shortage rumors are real. Too much info too many guys. real suspension of sales by the US Mint. SO it is not more "silver salesmen sales speeches" anymore.
I am still cautious short term, but I may stack all I can below 26.
but as a trader, I believe it may go down a bit more. I see the 21 $ as a titanium support for silver.
In the mean time, I am preparing some epic music songs for the time when silver price gets "liberated" .
So enjoy epic music now:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1HtCquBppTc
or this version is better:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6x7Anm4c9g
I am still cautious short term, but I may stack all I can below 26.
but as a trader, I believe it may go down a bit more. I see the 21 $ as a titanium support for silver.
In the mean time, I am preparing some epic music songs for the time when silver price gets "liberated" .
So enjoy epic music now:
or this version is better:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6x7Anm4c9g
viernes, 19 de abril de 2013
Shortage of gold bars and coins in Dubai, says World Gold Council
KOLKATA: World Gold Council, which has been tracking the global gold market pattern, has found that there is a shortage for bars and coins in Dubai which is creating a supply shortage.
Aram Shishmanian, CEO, World Gold Council: "It has become increasingly clear over the course of the past week that the fall in the gold price was triggered by speculative traders operating in the futures markets. Their short-term view of generating a trading profit is in stark contrast to the views of long term investors in gold, as evidenced by the massive wave of physical gold buying that began over the weekend and accelerated following Monday's further decline.
The surge in gold purchases is spanning markets from India and China to the US, Japan and Europe. Buyers are viewing this as an opportunity to purchase gold at prices not seen in the past couple of years."
The World Gold Council is uniquely positioned in the gold market to get immediate feedback on market patterns. "We are already seeing shortages for bars and coins in Dubai, while premiums in Mumbai are at $26/oz and $6 in Shanghai, indicating that buyers are willing to pay more than current spot prices for the metal.
Clearly the desire to own gold, as an investment and for adornment, has made itself felt in the physical market. Gold operates on the basic economic fundamentals of demand and supply. Our view is that demand is strong while supply remains constrained, and that this dynamic ultimately drives the long-term price of the metal," he added
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/Shortage-of-gold-bars-and-coins-in-Dubai-says-World-Gold-Council/articleshow/19630348.cms
Aram Shishmanian, CEO, World Gold Council: "It has become increasingly clear over the course of the past week that the fall in the gold price was triggered by speculative traders operating in the futures markets. Their short-term view of generating a trading profit is in stark contrast to the views of long term investors in gold, as evidenced by the massive wave of physical gold buying that began over the weekend and accelerated following Monday's further decline.
The surge in gold purchases is spanning markets from India and China to the US, Japan and Europe. Buyers are viewing this as an opportunity to purchase gold at prices not seen in the past couple of years."
The World Gold Council is uniquely positioned in the gold market to get immediate feedback on market patterns. "We are already seeing shortages for bars and coins in Dubai, while premiums in Mumbai are at $26/oz and $6 in Shanghai, indicating that buyers are willing to pay more than current spot prices for the metal.
Clearly the desire to own gold, as an investment and for adornment, has made itself felt in the physical market. Gold operates on the basic economic fundamentals of demand and supply. Our view is that demand is strong while supply remains constrained, and that this dynamic ultimately drives the long-term price of the metal," he added
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/Shortage-of-gold-bars-and-coins-in-Dubai-says-World-Gold-Council/articleshow/19630348.cms
miércoles, 17 de abril de 2013
GOLD MANIPULATION : THE EXTRATERRESTRIAL CONSPIRACY
SO I made a thread in Godlikeproductions.com
it is based in the "me tel u" conspiracy thread.
If you want to find a place to mix gold manipulations, extraterrestrials and much more, then this is your thread:
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2207923/pg1
warning: I made this thread to combine precious metals followers, UFO followers and debunkers all in one place.
It is kind of a social experiment. Gathering ufologists and precious metals fans in one place. Really interesting!
it is based in the "me tel u" conspiracy thread.
If you want to find a place to mix gold manipulations, extraterrestrials and much more, then this is your thread:
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2207923/pg1
warning: I made this thread to combine precious metals followers, UFO followers and debunkers all in one place.
It is kind of a social experiment. Gathering ufologists and precious metals fans in one place. Really interesting!
lunes, 15 de abril de 2013
Gold crushed by 400 tonnes or $20 billion of selling on Comex
hey guys. this article is interesting
A US fund with 1 billion U$S bet may have made the necessary damage to destroy the gold markets.
Foreign central banks didn´t show up. So I guess they are all golf buddies. why nobody defend the 1500 level?
the article now:
The gold futures markets opened in New York on Friday, April 12 to a monumental 3.4 million ounces (100 tonnes) of gold selling of the June futures contract (see below) in what proved to be only an opening shot. The selling took gold to the technically very important level of $1,540 which was not only the low of 2012, it was also seen by many as the level that confirmed the ongoing bull run which dates back to 2000. In many traders’ minds it stood as a formidable support level... the line in the sand.
Two hours later the initial selling, rumored to have been routed through Merrill Lynch's floor team, was followed by a rather more significant blast when the floor was hit by a further 10 million ounces of selling (300 tonnes) over the following 30 minutes of trading. This was clearly not a case of disappointed longs leaving the market — it had the hallmarks of a concerted 'short sale', which by driving prices sharply lower in a display of 'shock & awe' — would seek to gain further momentum by prompting others to also sell their positions as they hit their maximum acceptable losses or so-called 'stopped-out' in market parlance — probably hidden beneath the unimpeachable $1,540 level.
The selling was timed for optimal impact with New York at its most liquid, while key overseas gold markets including London were open and able to feel the impact. The estimated 400 tonnes of gold futures selling in total equates to 15% of annual gold mine production — too much for the market to readily absorb, especially with sentiment weak following gold's nonperformance in the wake of Japanese QE, a nuclear threat from North Korea and weakening U.S. economic data. The assault to the short side was essentially saying "you are long... and wrong."
Futures trading is performed on a margined basis — that is to say you have to stump up about 5% of the actual cost of the gold itself making futures trades a highly geared 'opportunity' of about 20:1 — easy profit and also loss! Futures trading is not a product for widows and orphans. The CME's 10% reduction in the required gold margins in November 2012 from $9,133/contract to just $7,425/contract made the market more accessible to those wishing both to go long or, as it transpired, to go short. Soon after we saw the first serious assault to the downside in December 2012, followed by further bouts in January 2013 — modest in size compared to the recent shorting but effective — it laid the groundwork for what was to follow. One fund in particular, based in Stamford Connecticut, was identified as the previous shorter of gold and has a history of being caught on the wrong side of the law on a few occasions. As badies go, they fit the bill nicely.
The value of the 400 tonnes of gold sold is approximately $20 billion but because it is margined, this short bet would require them to stump up just $1b. The rationale for the trade was clear — excessively bullish forecasts by many banks in Q4 seemed unsupported by follow through buying. The modest short selling in January 2013 had prompted little response from the longs, raising questions about their real commitment. By forcing the market lower, the fund sought to prompt a cascade or avalanche of additional selling, proving the lie; predictably some newswires were premature in announcing the death of the gold bull-run doing, in effect, the dirty work of the shorters in driving the market lower still.
This now leaves the gold market in an interesting conundrum — the shorter is now nursing a large gold position and, like the longs also exposed — that is to say the market is polarized between longs and shorts and they cannot both be right. Either the gold bulls, like in a game of tug-of-war, pull back and prompt the shorters to panic and buy back, or they do nothing, in which case the endless stories about the "end of gold" will see a steady further erosion in prices. At the end of the day, it is a question of who has got the biggest guns. The shorts have made their play, let's see if there is any response from the longs to defend their position.
source:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013/04/15/gold-crushed-by-400-tonnes-or-20-billion-of-sellin?ref=hp
A US fund with 1 billion U$S bet may have made the necessary damage to destroy the gold markets.
Foreign central banks didn´t show up. So I guess they are all golf buddies. why nobody defend the 1500 level?
the article now:
The gold futures markets opened in New York on Friday, April 12 to a monumental 3.4 million ounces (100 tonnes) of gold selling of the June futures contract (see below) in what proved to be only an opening shot. The selling took gold to the technically very important level of $1,540 which was not only the low of 2012, it was also seen by many as the level that confirmed the ongoing bull run which dates back to 2000. In many traders’ minds it stood as a formidable support level... the line in the sand.
Two hours later the initial selling, rumored to have been routed through Merrill Lynch's floor team, was followed by a rather more significant blast when the floor was hit by a further 10 million ounces of selling (300 tonnes) over the following 30 minutes of trading. This was clearly not a case of disappointed longs leaving the market — it had the hallmarks of a concerted 'short sale', which by driving prices sharply lower in a display of 'shock & awe' — would seek to gain further momentum by prompting others to also sell their positions as they hit their maximum acceptable losses or so-called 'stopped-out' in market parlance — probably hidden beneath the unimpeachable $1,540 level.
The selling was timed for optimal impact with New York at its most liquid, while key overseas gold markets including London were open and able to feel the impact. The estimated 400 tonnes of gold futures selling in total equates to 15% of annual gold mine production — too much for the market to readily absorb, especially with sentiment weak following gold's nonperformance in the wake of Japanese QE, a nuclear threat from North Korea and weakening U.S. economic data. The assault to the short side was essentially saying "you are long... and wrong."
Futures trading is performed on a margined basis — that is to say you have to stump up about 5% of the actual cost of the gold itself making futures trades a highly geared 'opportunity' of about 20:1 — easy profit and also loss! Futures trading is not a product for widows and orphans. The CME's 10% reduction in the required gold margins in November 2012 from $9,133/contract to just $7,425/contract made the market more accessible to those wishing both to go long or, as it transpired, to go short. Soon after we saw the first serious assault to the downside in December 2012, followed by further bouts in January 2013 — modest in size compared to the recent shorting but effective — it laid the groundwork for what was to follow. One fund in particular, based in Stamford Connecticut, was identified as the previous shorter of gold and has a history of being caught on the wrong side of the law on a few occasions. As badies go, they fit the bill nicely.
The value of the 400 tonnes of gold sold is approximately $20 billion but because it is margined, this short bet would require them to stump up just $1b. The rationale for the trade was clear — excessively bullish forecasts by many banks in Q4 seemed unsupported by follow through buying. The modest short selling in January 2013 had prompted little response from the longs, raising questions about their real commitment. By forcing the market lower, the fund sought to prompt a cascade or avalanche of additional selling, proving the lie; predictably some newswires were premature in announcing the death of the gold bull-run doing, in effect, the dirty work of the shorters in driving the market lower still.
This now leaves the gold market in an interesting conundrum — the shorter is now nursing a large gold position and, like the longs also exposed — that is to say the market is polarized between longs and shorts and they cannot both be right. Either the gold bulls, like in a game of tug-of-war, pull back and prompt the shorters to panic and buy back, or they do nothing, in which case the endless stories about the "end of gold" will see a steady further erosion in prices. At the end of the day, it is a question of who has got the biggest guns. The shorts have made their play, let's see if there is any response from the longs to defend their position.
source:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013/04/15/gold-crushed-by-400-tonnes-or-20-billion-of-sellin?ref=hp
domingo, 14 de abril de 2013
SILVER 26 LEVEL DEFENDED? MAGUIRE "GOLD REBOUNDING SOON"
Maguire has spoken guys. I was the guy who was screaming to buy silver
for 26 and load the truck. It made a huge rebound last time.
Maguire said that gold will rebound because there is no real gold supply behind to back these sales.
Now silver is going back above 26. I want it below 26 to buy and keep stacking . But it looks chinese and russians are enjoying this buying oportunity.
I hope the Cartel counterattacks in the NY opening, so I keep stacking at lower prices. No clue if I will succeed.
Silvertards, we riiide!
MUST READ ARTICLES about this sell off:
:
Maguire said that gold will rebound because there is no real gold supply behind to back these sales.
Now silver is going back above 26. I want it below 26 to buy and keep stacking . But it looks chinese and russians are enjoying this buying oportunity.
I hope the Cartel counterattacks in the NY opening, so I keep stacking at lower prices. No clue if I will succeed.
Silvertards, we riiide!
MUST READ ARTICLES about this sell off:
| http://www.grandich.com/2013/04/i-was-wr-wrrrro-wrrrrronn/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+GrandichsBlog+%28The+Grandich+Letter+|+Grandich+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader | |
| http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/top-economic-advisers-forecast-war-and-unrest/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29&utm_content=Google+Reader | |
| http://www.figanews.com/george-soros-doesnt-expect-safe-haven-gold-to-crash-youtube/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+GeorgeSorosBlog+%28GEORGE+SOROS+BLOG%29&utm_content=Google+Reader | |
| http://www.figanews.com/paper-gold-silver-got-crushed-this-is-what-you-need-to-know-by-gregory-mannarino-youtube/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BobChapmanBlog+%28Bob+Chapman+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader | |
| http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/12_Former_US_Treasury_Official_-_Fed_Orchestrated_Smash_In_Gold.html | |
| http://oroplata.com/article/un-vistazo-al-oro-y-la-plata-2013/ | |
| http://maxkeiser.com/2013/04/13/gold-sells-off-on-fears-that-bankrupt-european-nations-will-be-forced-to-sell-their-gold-reserves/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Maxkeisercom+%28maxkeiser.com%29&utm_content=Google+Reader | |
| http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.ar/2013/04/massive-raid-on-gold-and-silverandrew.html | |
| http://www.businessinsider.com/frank-holmes-gold-rally-15-2013-4?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheMoneyGame+%28The+Money+Game%29&utm_content=Google+Reader | |
| http://silverdoctors.com/sd-metals-markets-413-gold-silver-on-verge-of-capitulation-to-1400-22-prior-to-massive-rally/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Silverdoctors+%28SilverDoctors%29&utm_content=Google+Reader | |
| http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/12/gold-reality-check-2/ | |
| http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1365782977.php | |
| http://bullmarketthinking.com/comex-gold-inventories-collapse-by-largest-amount-on-record/ | |
| http://silverdoctors.com/10-of-us-annual-silver-supply-just-vaporized/#more-25002 | |
|
|
| http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-13/china-takes-another-stab-dollar-launches-currency-swap-line-france | |
| http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/04/arrogant-gold-bears-press-in-the-market-and-in-print.html | |
| http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4X_FSRftEFw&feature=player_embedded | |
jueves, 11 de abril de 2013
Gold holding 1550 level like a king
Gold holding 1550 level like a champion.
Maybe we must thank the Central Bank of Russia, China , the BRICS Alliance, the "White Dragon Society", and whoever is buying gold big time now. I feel the cartel wanted to send gold lower , but it was impossible.
I am not screaming victory. But my thanks to whoever is "defending" gold around 1550$. My deep thanks to all of you :D
IF you can, keep it low between abril and may so I can keep hoarding silver. Then you can blow it up :D
Just saying, remember that China and Japan will start trading in their currencies in June, 2013.
Good luck
Maybe we must thank the Central Bank of Russia, China , the BRICS Alliance, the "White Dragon Society", and whoever is buying gold big time now. I feel the cartel wanted to send gold lower , but it was impossible.
I am not screaming victory. But my thanks to whoever is "defending" gold around 1550$. My deep thanks to all of you :D
IF you can, keep it low between abril and may so I can keep hoarding silver. Then you can blow it up :D
Just saying, remember that China and Japan will start trading in their currencies in June, 2013.
Good luck
lunes, 8 de abril de 2013
NOURIEL ROUBINI GOES FULLY ANTI GOLD!
Nouriel Roubini Is Going Off On Gold Bugs, Bitcoin, And James Rickards On Twitter
There's not much going on tonight, so you might as well enjoy Nouriel Roubini
slamming gold bugs on Twitter. In addition to taking on gold he's also
taking on famous gold advocate James Rickards and Bitcoin.
And here are a couple of Rickards' responses.
And here are a couple of Rickards' responses.
VISIT THIS LINK NOW:
http://www.businessinsider.com/nouriel-roubini-is-going-off-on-gold-bugs-bitcoin-and-james-rickards-on-twitter-2013-4?utm
sábado, 6 de abril de 2013
COMMODITIES GURU JIM ROGERS:“I Suspect They’ll Take The Pension Plans Next; I For One Am Worried, And I’m Taking Preparations”
( got phyz?'?)
Guys. This is the opinion of some "gurus". Yes, broke governments like the USA may try to confiscate your savings.
I got my pension funds confiscated in 2008 , or better said "nationalized".
Just a part of this article:
"...With respect to which assets governments will likely be coming for next, Jim said, ”401k plans, IRA’s, and pensions plans which the government knows about [may be next]…They’re rationale would be, ‘Well most people haven’t been doing well in their IRAs and pension plans for the past several years, so we’re going to help you. We’re going to take your pension plan and give you government bonds so that you have a guaranteed return.” "
whole article :
[link to bullmarketthinking.com]
I am argentinian. And I am a bank analyst. I have already been there when TSHTF TWICE. bank holidays, bank runs, hyperinflation, pension funds "nationalization" in 2008:
[link to online.wsj.com]
Bank meltdown, devaluation, economic meltdown...food riots . Do i continue ?
So . I am spending MY KARMA points BIG time telling you this:
GET out of government PENSION programmes. Specially from broke governments pension programmes.
You won´t get pension funds. You will get devaluated pennies on the dollar for your retirement or no money at all. They will default, confiscate ,"nationalize" or something else. But you won´t 100% +return on your money. Guaranteed if your government is broke today.
Which is the case of most of the developed world countries.
Ask me a question if you wish. I got my retirement funds "nationalized" and now these funds are being used in "social" programmes ( negative return loans for housing)
Yeah negative returns will be awesome for my retirement!!
Open forum discussion here:
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2193246/pg1
Guys. This is the opinion of some "gurus". Yes, broke governments like the USA may try to confiscate your savings.
I got my pension funds confiscated in 2008 , or better said "nationalized".
Just a part of this article:
"...With respect to which assets governments will likely be coming for next, Jim said, ”401k plans, IRA’s, and pensions plans which the government knows about [may be next]…They’re rationale would be, ‘Well most people haven’t been doing well in their IRAs and pension plans for the past several years, so we’re going to help you. We’re going to take your pension plan and give you government bonds so that you have a guaranteed return.” "
whole article :
[link to bullmarketthinking.com]
I am argentinian. And I am a bank analyst. I have already been there when TSHTF TWICE. bank holidays, bank runs, hyperinflation, pension funds "nationalization" in 2008:
[link to online.wsj.com]
Bank meltdown, devaluation, economic meltdown...food riots . Do i continue ?
So . I am spending MY KARMA points BIG time telling you this:
GET out of government PENSION programmes. Specially from broke governments pension programmes.
You won´t get pension funds. You will get devaluated pennies on the dollar for your retirement or no money at all. They will default, confiscate ,"nationalize" or something else. But you won´t 100% +return on your money. Guaranteed if your government is broke today.
Which is the case of most of the developed world countries.
Ask me a question if you wish. I got my retirement funds "nationalized" and now these funds are being used in "social" programmes ( negative return loans for housing)
Yeah negative returns will be awesome for my retirement!!
Open forum discussion here:
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2193246/pg1
viernes, 5 de abril de 2013
Gold and Silver well defended . Thank you guys
Thank you to the gold and silver defenders today.
Thanks to:
1) Central banks of Russia and China or any eastern central bank buying the dips today
2) the White Dragon Society or any "good guy" out here supporting gold
3) Galactic Federation ( Maybe they are real)
4) Silver Liberation Army
5) Max Keiser
6) All goldtards and silvertards of the world.
7) Gold miners hoarding here
To all of you, thank you very much!
Thanks to:
1) Central banks of Russia and China or any eastern central bank buying the dips today
2) the White Dragon Society or any "good guy" out here supporting gold
3) Galactic Federation ( Maybe they are real)
4) Silver Liberation Army
5) Max Keiser
6) All goldtards and silvertards of the world.
7) Gold miners hoarding here
To all of you, thank you very much!
jueves, 4 de abril de 2013
GOLD And silver under attack.Tomorrow big day!
Tomorrow is the big day. The gold cartel may attack and make a full assault to destroy the 1500 level for gold.
Should they succeed, it will be a bloodbath.
This is the moment of truth for precious metals. Central bank of Russia and China should defend these levels at all costs to avoid "deflationary forces" , if you know what I mean ( fiscal income!!)
May the Force be with you ,fellow silvertards!
Should they succeed, it will be a bloodbath.
This is the moment of truth for precious metals. Central bank of Russia and China should defend these levels at all costs to avoid "deflationary forces" , if you know what I mean ( fiscal income!!)
May the Force be with you ,fellow silvertards!
lunes, 1 de abril de 2013
Bullish Bets Rebound at Fastest Pace in Four Years: Commodities
( just some bloomberg news )
Bullish Bets Rebound at Fastest Pace in Four Years: Commodities
By Elizabeth Campbell -
Apr 1, 2013 10:34 AM GMT-0300
Hedge funds and other large speculators increased net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 10 percent to 679,191 contracts in the week ended March 26, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The bets surged 67 percent in three weeks, the biggest advance since May 2009. Wagers on higher oil prices climbed the most this year, while those for cattle are at a six-week high.
An employee works with copper
sheets at Industrial Metal Supply Co.'s warehouse in San Diego.
Production will outpace demand in aluminum, copper, lead, nickel and
zinc in 2013, Barclays said in a March 14 report. Photographer: Sam
Hodgson/Bloomberg
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“Over the last quarter, we’ve seen an improvement in U.S. economic activity far above expectations,” said Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based fund manager at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $130 billion of assets. “That has ginned up demand expectations.”
American Spending
The S&P GSCI gauge gained 1.3 percent last quarter. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities climbed 6 percent, while the dollar advanced 4 percent against a basket of six trading partners. Treasuries lost 0.3 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows. The CFTC holdings reached a four-year low in the first week of March and are still about 24 percent below the average over the past five years.U.S. gross domestic product rose at a 0.4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from a prior estimate of 0.1 percent, government data show. American household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, gained 0.7 percent in February after a 0.4 percent advance the prior month that was bigger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said. The nation is the biggest consumer of corn and crude oil.
The Cyprus government averted panic withdrawals last week when it allowed banks to open for the first time since March 16. Retail sales in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, unexpectedly rose for a second month in February, the Federal Statistics Office said March 28. Western Europe will use 14 percent of the world’s copper this year, and the U.S. will account for 8.7 percent of demand, according to Morgan Stanley.
Equity Rally
The GSCI gauge has surged more than 80 percent since the end of 2008 as central banks in the U.S., Europe and Asia started record global stimulus measures aimed at reviving economies. The Federal Reserve left its asset purchases unchanged at $85 billion a month on March 20.The S&P 500 Index advanced to a record close last week, marking the completion of the recovery from a bear market that wiped out more than $10 trillion from the value of U.S. equities. Commodities have failed to keep up with the equity rally as four years of price gains prompted farmers and miners to increase production. The GSCI is still 27 percent below its record close reached in July 2008.
Production will outpace demand in aluminum, copper, lead, nickel and zinc in 2013, Barclays said in a March 14 report. Cotton and sugar also will see surpluses, according to Rabobank International. U.S. crude stockpiles reached the highest since June in the week ended March 22, a government report showed March 27. American growers will plant the most corn since 1936, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the next day.
Southern Hemisphere
“There’s been a lot of capacity added across the board,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage about $14.7 billion of assets at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati. “There’s additional acreage in farmland, and some of the drought conditions in the southern hemisphere have eased. For industrial commodities, there’s been a huge amount of capacity added in terms of all the metals. We’re not going to see a lot of push on pricing.”Wagers on declining copper prices increased to a net-short position of 30,036 futures and options, the CFTC data show. That’s the most-negative outlook since the data begins in 2006. Investors are also still betting on declines for heating oil, coffee, hogs, sugar, soybean oil and wheat.
Fund managers pulled $92 million from commodity funds in the week ended March 27, Cameron Brandt, the director of research for Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, which tracks money flows, said in an e-mail. Gold funds had an outflow of about $23 million, he said.
Goldman View
The GSCI lost as much as 1.3 percent this year before erasing declines. The price slump in raw materials was “overdone,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a March 7 report, raising its outlook for commodities to “overweight” from “neutral.” The Washington-based International Monetary Fund is predicting global growth of 3.5 percent in 2013, up from 3.2 percent in 2012.“The biggest surprise could be growth begins to accelerate, and oil and metals prices move to the upside,” Jeffrey Currie, the head of commodities research at Goldman in New York, said in an interview. “History says that you never want to be short commodities during an economic expansion. The risk is more to the upside than to the downside, should the economy accelerate.”
Gold Prices
Bullish gold wagers fell 14 percent to 60,126 futures and options in the week to March 26, the CFTC data show. The bets are down 41 percent this year. Those for silver fell 77 percent last week to 632 contracts, the lowest since September 2007.Gold will average $1,670 an ounce this year, down from a previous forecast of $1,680, Michael Widmer, an analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London, said in a report March 26. Investors lack a reason to increase bullion holdings because “the business cycle is in the ‘recovery’ stage,” he said.
Gold futures for June delivery rose 0.2 percent to $1,598.60 at 9:24 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Holdings in exchange-traded products stood at 2,449.84 metric tons on March 28, 6.9 percent lower in 2013.
Crude-oil holdings jumped 16 percent to 199,129 contracts, the biggest gain since Dec. 18. The net-long position in natural gas climbed 41 percent to 65,040 contracts, the highest since the data starts in 2006.
A measure of speculative positions across 11 agricultural products from wheat to coffee to cattle rose 15 percent to 306,279 contracts, the highest since Feb. 12.
Coffee Decline
Bullish corn bets rose 32 percent to 192,561, a fourth straight gain and the highest since Dec. 11. Soybean wagers jumped 12 percent to 112,352, the biggest gain in seven weeks. The investors trimmed their outlook for a decline in coffee to 28,769 contracts from 30,162 a week earlier.“It’s global growth at the end of the day that’s keeping the bid under commodity prices,” said James Paulsen, the Minneapolis-based chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $325 billion of assets. “Over the next few years, I think commodities are likely to do OK. I don’t know if they’re the best-performing asset class. I think they’re going to be a decent-performing asset class.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Campbell in Chicago at ecampbell14@bloomberg.net
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