KISS.
keep it simple system
too much bonds out there.
fed buzz word > tapering
too much bond owners chasing few US dollars ( real shortage. Global bond market >> huge and epic)
result:
dollar stronger...
cartel reaction > what a nice oportunity to destroy gold and silver and grab them so crazy cheap for the next massive upleg.
end of discussion
gold could go to 1200 or 1100. insane. crystal ball broken. I am bearish for now.
good luck
lunes, 24 de junio de 2013
Mark Mobius: China's Problems as Big as US Subprime
Mark Mobius: China's Problems as Big as US Subprime
By: Jenny Cosgrave, Staff Writer
David Rochkind | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Mark Mobius
While China's housing market problems are
similar in scale to those faced during the U.S. subprime mortgage
bubble and its banks are rife with bad loans, it won't lead to another
Lehman-style crash, Franklin Templeton's Mark Mobius told CNBC on
Monday.
Mobius said the similarities could not be denied but since Chinese banks are owned by the government, they will not be allowed to fail.
Investor fears have been heightened after a credit crunch last week led to a spike in yields on inter-bank loans. Some analysts have pointed out the credit crunch was spiked by China's central bank tightening liquidity, rather than a loss in confidence among banks.
(Read More: China's Central Bank Plays Hardball – Will It Backfire?)
Still, nervousness led to big drop in Chinese stocks on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite tumbling 5.3 percent to its lowest levels since early December.
"The perception of China is they are in the same kind of situation as the U.S., and yes it is true that a lot of loans are going to go bad, and that banks have been hiding a lot of these loans in so called trust companies," Mobius said on the sidelines of the FundForum conference of asset managers in Monaco.
Mobius said the similarities could not be denied but since Chinese banks are owned by the government, they will not be allowed to fail.
Investor fears have been heightened after a credit crunch last week led to a spike in yields on inter-bank loans. Some analysts have pointed out the credit crunch was spiked by China's central bank tightening liquidity, rather than a loss in confidence among banks.
(Read More: China's Central Bank Plays Hardball – Will It Backfire?)
Still, nervousness led to big drop in Chinese stocks on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite tumbling 5.3 percent to its lowest levels since early December.
"The perception of China is they are in the same kind of situation as the U.S., and yes it is true that a lot of loans are going to go bad, and that banks have been hiding a lot of these loans in so called trust companies," Mobius said on the sidelines of the FundForum conference of asset managers in Monaco.
China Will Avoid a Big Correction: Mobius
Mark Mobius, executive
chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, discusses China's "good
move", the unlikeliness of a big correction there and investing in
Egypt.
"We have to ask what the consequence is,
what will happen as a result, and the scenario will be very, very
different in China, simply because the banks are controlled by the
government, so they will not be allowed to go bankrupt."
As a result, Mobius said the liquidity problems faced by Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers at the height of the 2008 crisis won't happen in China.
Mobius manages some $53 billion in emerging market funds and has more money invested in China than in any other market.
(Read More: Goldman Joins Bandwagon, Downgrades China)
He said China has $3 trillion in foreign reserves which can be used to recapitalize the banks.
But not everyone agrees that China can make it through its current problems.
Gordon Chang, the author of "The Coming Collapse of China" told CNBC on Monday the credit crunch was a serious problem and could lead to a "catastrophic failure" in the banking system in the next six months.
"This is not so much as a liquidity crisis as a debt crisis," he told CNBC on Monday.
source:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100837987
As a result, Mobius said the liquidity problems faced by Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers at the height of the 2008 crisis won't happen in China.
Mobius manages some $53 billion in emerging market funds and has more money invested in China than in any other market.
(Read More: Goldman Joins Bandwagon, Downgrades China)
He said China has $3 trillion in foreign reserves which can be used to recapitalize the banks.
But not everyone agrees that China can make it through its current problems.
Gordon Chang, the author of "The Coming Collapse of China" told CNBC on Monday the credit crunch was a serious problem and could lead to a "catastrophic failure" in the banking system in the next six months.
"This is not so much as a liquidity crisis as a debt crisis," he told CNBC on Monday.
source:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100837987
martes, 18 de junio de 2013
Gold slumps on fears Fed will signal taper
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold futures ended lower Tuesday after dropping
to their lowest level in nearly four weeks as traders focused on the
possibility the U.S. Federal Reserve will signal that it’s prepared to
slow the flow of monetary stimulus.
Gold for August delivery
GCQ3
-0.14%
dropped $16.20, or 1.2%, to close at $1,366.90 an ounce in Nymex floor
trading as Fed officials began a two-day monetary-policy meeting. During
the session, gold traded as low as $1,360.20, the lowest level for a
most-active futures contract since May 23, according to FactSet.
Gold falls ahead of Fed meeting.
“Short-term gold investors are awaiting the results of the Fed meeting,
fearing more noises that [quantitative easing] will be curtailed,” said
Edmund Moy, chief strategist at gold-backed IRA provider Morgan Gold.
“However, it’s likely that Fed will continue to signal flexibility and
concern over the size of QE (as a message to the president and Congress
to get the fiscal house in order) but there will be no changes in the
short term because their triggers have not been met,” Moy said, in
emailed comments.
Economic data on Tuesday offered a mixed bag for Fed experts. Housing starts rebounded by a stronger-than-expected 6.8% in May, but consumer price inflation was more subdued than expected, posting a monthly rise of 0.1%.
Investors are closely watching for any comments by the Fed about the
future of its program of purchasing $85 billion a month in bonds, which
is intended to stoke economic growth. The Fed will conclude its two-day
meeting Wednesday and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a news
conference. See: Here’s proof that Bernanke’s news conferences impact the market.
But some analysts say there may not be much for the Fed to latch on to just yet.
“Recent data gives little insight into, or guidance on, the Fed’s
short-term monetary stance while instead offering rich ground for a
policy debate. This is likely to be reflected in minutes from the
meeting, while Ben Bernanke’s statement late on Wednesday is hardly
likely to turn outright hawkish right away, given subdued [CPI
readings]. We expect the Fed chairman to be at ease with his ongoing
accommodative stance,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, metals analyst at VTB
Capital.
Gold prices in recent years have been buoyed by the Fed’s aggressive monetary-stimulus policies.
After the close of floor trading of gold Monday, a report from the Financial Times
said Bernanke is likely to signal the central bank is preparing to
reduce bond purchases. Bernanke is due to hold a news conference on
Wednesday after the conclusion of the Fed meeting.
Why you need not fear the Fed
Hype continues to mount ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, with all the fuss centered around when the Fed will start tapering its bond-buying program. But there are opinions that say everyone just needs to chill out. Photo: AP.
While most analysts don’t expect the Fed to make a Wednesday
announcement about tapering asset purchases, speculation in the markets
about possible tapering began to heat up when some Fed officials last
month started to voice support for reducing asset purchases.
Last week, a report in The Wall Street Journal indicated Bernanke will
reassure investors that an eventual tapering of the Fed’s bond-buying
program won’t be accompanied by any immediate hike in interest rates.
Elsewhere in the metals complex Tuesday, July silver
SIN3
-0.72%
fell 8 cents to end at $21.68 an ounce. Copper for July delivery
HGN3
+0.05%
lost 5 cents, or 1.3%, to $3.15 a pound.
September palladium
PAU3
-0.21%
slumped $9.50, or 1.3%, to $708.35 an ounce, while July platinum
PLN3
-0.54%
bucked the weaker tone to rise $5.30, closing at $1,440.10 an ounce.
William L. Watts is MarketWatch's senior markets writer, based in New York. Follow him on Twitter @wlwatts.
Carla Mozee is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in Los Angeles. Follow her on Twitter @MWMozee.
viernes, 7 de junio de 2013
I predicted the latest gold smash today 48 hs before because of...
- I was even sending all the related news about this on my twitter as well.English links of course. I look forward to read your opinions about this potential bear leg for precious metals
Reymidas Fund this is one of the links http://finance.yahoo.com/news/roubini-extreme-conservatives-hurting-gold-051441269.html. Nouriel Roubini showed up some hours prior to the latest attack on the strategic 1500 level. And this week the story about him appeard just in time. So , I guess he is a potential Cartel insider, or his timing is awesome in 2013.
miércoles, 5 de junio de 2013
domingo, 2 de junio de 2013
Anyone Who Wants To Short Gold Must Consider This Eye-Popping Chart
Gold has been one of the worst performing asset classes in the global financial markets this year, strengthening the bears' case that the yellow metal has no intrinsic value.
With gold prices trending lower and the dollar moving higher, the short-sellers have been piling on.
But while the investment class is largely staying away from the yellow metal, the Chinese consumer is only rushing in.
Below is a chart from Morgan Stanley's China Pulse report. It shows sales growth for various goods in March and April.
As you can see, the Chinese people rushed in like crazy to take advantage of the lower price.
While the value of gold continues to be up for debate, anyone consider shorting gold should consider the price floor put in by what Frank Holmes has dubbed the gold "love trade."
With gold prices trending lower and the dollar moving higher, the short-sellers have been piling on.
But while the investment class is largely staying away from the yellow metal, the Chinese consumer is only rushing in.
Below is a chart from Morgan Stanley's China Pulse report. It shows sales growth for various goods in March and April.
As you can see, the Chinese people rushed in like crazy to take advantage of the lower price.
While the value of gold continues to be up for debate, anyone consider shorting gold should consider the price floor put in by what Frank Holmes has dubbed the gold "love trade."
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